Indiana ranks in the top ten producers nationally for blueberries, as well as corn, soybeans, peppermint, processing tomatoes, cantaloupe, watermelon, snap beans, and cucumbers. It ranks similarly in meat production because of its rich soil, topography, and favorable rainfall and temperature patterns. Climate change, however, is bringing new challenges for farmers in the region.
CEOS’s Ben Gramig (ACE, UIUC) worked with twelve co-authors led by Laura Bowling (Purdue) to study how projected climate change is expected to affect Indiana’s agricultural productivity and associated environmental quality. The research shows that Indiana will have warmer temperatures, increased duration and intensity of extreme heat during the growing season, a longer frost-free period, and more freeze/thaw cycles. Additionally, more intense precipitation in the spring is likely to saturate soils early in the growing season and drier summer conditions may negatively impact water availability later in the growing season. These factors make it more difficult for crops and livestock to thrive and enable weeds, pathogens, and pests to encroach on farms.
Fortunately, there are adaptation measures that can mitigate the negative impacts of climate change on farms. For example, changing the cropping system to include cover crops and expanded rotations, as well as infrastructure improvements like better irrigation and drainage can increase resilience. Meanwhile, livestock will require slightly different diets, and increased ventilation for confined feeding operations with more shelters for pasture-based systems to help regulate temperatures. Farmers may see improvements if they make changes in field management, especially focusing on soil health by improving soil stability and drainage to maximize field workdays; increased drainage could come at the cost of greater nutrient losses without accompanying nutrient or drainage management changes.
The authors provide myriad other suggestions for adaptation measures specific to changes in rainfall, temperature, and so on, based on their projections in the full research paper. In summary, Indiana is experiencing complex and variable production impacts due to climate change, and farmers will have to adapt their practices to work with their new reality. As the authors conclude, “There is a need for continued applied research into climate-adaptive management systems and extension education programming to provide Indiana’s producers with the science-based information needed to make informed decisions regarding their options to minimize risk to themselves and the environment.”
The full research article is Open Access in the journal Climatic Change.
Bowling, L.C., Cherkauer, K.A., Lee, C.I. et al. (2020). “Agricultural impacts of climate change in Indiana and potential adaptations.” Climatic Change 163, 2005–2027. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02934-9
NOTE: CEOS affiliate faculty Ben Gramig, Madhu Khanna and Jonathan Coppess (ACE, UIUC) are all part of a large interdisciplinary team currently working on a climate change impacts assessment for the state of Illinois. This effort is being led by the Illinois chapter of The Nature Conservancy and climate scientists at UIUC. Gramig is the lead author of the chapter on agricultural impacts that Coppess and Khanna have both contributed to. This report will be available in the coming months.
Further resources: Sustainable food and agriculture stakeholder roundtable summary.